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Friday, May 11, 2007
The Hillary
X-Factor
DEEP DOWN. When conservatives contemplate a Hillary Clinton presidency, they are overcome by visions of socialistic domestic programs -- a nationalized health care system, sharply higher and more progressive income taxes, expensive giveaways for every conceivable Democrat constituency, and a crushing new burden of federal regulations on business. It's possible that these are her intentions, although few of her critics delve too deeply into the contradictions between her leftist ideological roots and the lessons she must have absorbed from the more pragmatic strategy practiced by her husband, who was, with a few exceptions, disinclined to break the great American economic machine with expensive social engineering projects. Why spend good money on causes you can just talk about to great effect?
The truth is, it's very hard to know what kind of president Hillary would make. Maybe being the first woman president and getting reelected are more important to her than the radical agenda she developed in college and law school. We are handicapped by our very experience with the Clintons, which teaches us not to trust anything they say about anything, because they always feel free to do whatever they deem advantageous at the moment, regardless of what they've said in the past. That's why conservatives are not at all surprised that Hillary has suddenly done an about-face on the Iraq War, despite a long and very well documented record of espousing an opposite view.
In a sense, the conservatives have tricked themselves on the subject of Hillary by getting their reasoning backward. They've convinced themselves the great danger of a female Clinton presidency is a socialist pogrom and that the best strategy for preventing it is to keep reminding people that the Clintons aren't to be trusted when they make promises -- and besides, they're almost unbelievably ruthless and vengeful when crossed. But it's actually the latter -- the character issues -- that are more threatening to conservatives, who will be made to pay dearly for past slanders. A socialist agenda, if Hillary actually still has one, is not the nightmare but the dream come true. Big socialism always hurts an otherwise strong economy, and if Hillary reaches too deeply into the voters' pockets, they will hurl her and her party out of office. (That's why, as we've pointed out elsewhere, all the Global Warming reformers are going to be bitterly disappointed in short order.)
With one exception, the most reasonable and probable scenario for a Hillary presidency is a less successful version of the Bill Clinton presidency, less successful because Hillary simply isn't as charming as her husband. That's not a particularly interesting prediction, and it neither helps the desperate Republicans nor provides much inspiration to Democrats. Which explains why hardly anyone is making such a prediction.
But we noted an exception. It's a big one, and it's one that should be intensely interesting to both Republicans and Democrats. It's about the character issue. It made an unexpected and history-altering impact on Bill's presidency. And it would likely do the same to a Hillary presidency, but in an entirely different way.
You see, we can't believe anything Hillary's ever said about the Islamic jihadists and the War on Terror. As she tacks farther and farther left -- toward surrender in Iraq and a strictly defensive posture vis a vis terrorism -- she is making herself increasingly vulnerable to the one thing she cannot tolerate -- being made to look bad. If she rides a wave of pacifist denial to the White House, the consequences of American retreat will land squarely on her desk in the Oval Office. A re-emboldened al qaeda will eventually attack the United States again on our home soil, probably more seriously than they did on 9/11. How will Hillary respond?
I think her likely response would make that of any other candidate in the '08 race, including McCain and Giuliani, look mild by comparison. Bin Laden and his followers are too dumb to realize it, but the one thing they never ever want to do is make Hillary Clinton look bad. She shares almost none of the constraints that limit the male candidates in the '08 race. She isn't a "nice guy" or a cool-headed "manager." She has neither military experience nor any particular admiration or regard for the military. And she wouldn't have to placate timid appeasers in the opposition party.
When the attack comes, all the issues that have gotten no traction during the past five years -- the vicious subjugation of women in the Islamic world, the perverted exploitation of children as suicide-bombers, the rise of global anti-semitism, the contemptible double-dealings of so-called friendly Arab governments, the barbaric murders and mutilations of civilians -- will suddenly gush nonstop from the Clinton spin machine into the public consciousness, successfully this time, and she will resurrect the JFK Democrat patriotism of old; she'll give the "bear any burden, pay any price" speech and she will mean it. She will be willing to spend American military lives more freely in the name of her vengeance than George W. Bush, Cheney, McCain, and Giuliani combined. She will have no compunction whatsoever about morphing into an American Churchill. The phony war will be over for good.
What Republicans and Democrats have to decide from their opposing perspectives is just how they feel about this. One can make the case that from time to time the nation really does need a true sonofabitch at the helm, someone who knows how to attack and keep attacking until the enemy is vanquished or destroyed. George W. Bush has been resolute, but he lacks the killer instinct and the monumental ego that overrides all opposition and doubt. Hillary possesses these attributes in spades. How should Republicans feel about Hillary as Commander-in-Chief? I don't know.
I clearly don't speak for the Democrats. They have their own decisions to make, based on their own criteria. All I can offer them is a bit of advice. Don't look for proof that I'm wrong in any of Mrs. Clinton's utterances, past, present or future. Look into her mind and soul. If you like what you find there, so be it.
